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The SIR Model and the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone
Collins Bekoe
Pages - 11 - 24     |    Revised - 30-11-2015     |    Published - 31-12-2015
Volume - 6   Issue - 2    |    Publication Date - November / December 2015  Table of Contents
Mathematical Model, Epidemiology, Epidemic, Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, SIR, Ebola Virus Disease.
This research presents a mathematical model aimed at understanding the spread of the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) using the standard SIR model. In modelling infectious disease dynamics, it is necessary to investigate whether the disease spread could attain an epidemic level or it could be wiped out. Data from the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease outbreak is used and Guinea where the outbreak started is considered in this study. A three dimensional non-linear differential equation is formulated and solved numerically using the Runge-Kutta 4th order method in the Vensim Personal Learning Edition Software. It is shown from the study that, with public health interventions, the effective reproductive number can be reduced making it possible for the outbreak to die out. It is also shown mathematically that the epidemic can only die out when there are no new infected individuals in the population.
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Mr. Collins Bekoe
Prince of Songkla University, Pattani Campus - Thailand